Water Ravishing MillTier 2

at Michigan AMB Regionals

decks

9 (15.3% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

44 19-20-5

overall winrate

48.9%

ELO-adjusted winrate

52.6% avg ELO +0.9 per match

expected value

49.2% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1269 · median 1245 · range 959–1750 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)

959 Q1 1194 Q3 1364 1750

11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies	13.6%	5	2-3-0	40.0%	44.4%	49.2%	-0.5
Slimes	11.9%	8	4-3-1	56.2%	54.2%	56.8%	+3.2
Water Penguin Mill	10.2%	7	3-3-1	50.0%	50.0%	56.2%	+3.1
Wind Astra Cleric	8.5%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.1%	-0.9
Fire Crux Mage	6.8%	4	1-2-1	37.5%	43.8%	47.5%	-1.6
Wind Shadowstrike	6.8%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	47.0%	-2.8
Wind Razorgale	5.1%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	48.2%	-2.9
Fire Aggro	3.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	42.5%	-12.1
Fire Luxem Assassin	3.4%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.1%	+14.6
Fire Polkhawk	1.7%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	29.5%	-19.7
Fire Ravishing Mill	1.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.2%	-0.8
Fire Slimes	1.7%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	40.4%	-9.3
Water Allies	1.7%	2	1-0-1	75.0%	58.3%	55.7%	+5.5
Water Diana	1.7%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	65.8%	+15.1
Water Luxem Assassin	1.7%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	65.1%	+24.2
Water Slimes	1.7%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	62.1%	+19.4
Wind Silvie	1.7%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	39.6%	-16.6
Wind Slimes	1.7%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 9 from this event

The 9 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Strategem of Myriad Ice. Losers more often ran: Quicksilver Grail, Frostbind, Primordial Ritual.

↑ Played more by winners

Grand Crusader's Ring

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Strategem of Myriad Ice

Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers

Quicksilver Grail

Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.